Monday, October 20, 2014

Peyton Manning All-Time Passing TD Leader

Peyton threw his 509th TD in his 246th game last night to break the NFL record for career passing TDs.  I'd argue that he is the greatest regular season QB of all time.  (Greatest postseason QB of all time?  Joe Montana, of course).  Favre had previously set the record in 2010, although he bested Marino's 420 mark back in 2007.  I figured we should take a closer look at their numbers.

Peyton Manning 
Games: 246
TD: 510
INT: 222
Yards: 66,812
Completions: 5,681 (Attempts: 8,669) 
Completion Pct: 65.5%
Per game: 2.07 TDs, 0.90 INTs, 272 yards

Brett Favre
Games: 302
TD: 508
INT: 336
Yards: 71,838
Completions: 6,300 (Attempts:10,169) 
Completion Pct: 62.0%
Per game: 1.68 TDs, 1.11 INTs, 238 yards

So it took Peyton 56 less games than Favre to reach the 508 TD mark.  Along the way, he's thrown 114 less interceptions (and 2 more TDs), at a much higher completion percentage rate (65.5% to Favre's 62%) while averaging 34 more yards per game (272 to 238).  Sorry, no comparison.

So what would Peyton's numbers look like if he played the same number of games as Favre (302)?  At Peyton's career average rate, he'd have 626 TDs, 272 INTs and 82,021 yards, which would destroy Favre in every way.

Favre still leads only Peyton in career completions and yards.  At Peyton's career rate, it would take him another 27 games to break the completion record and another 18.5 games to break the yardage mark.
However, Peyton's numbers in his 2.5 seasons at Denver are even more incredible.

38 games, 111 TDs, 24 INTs, 999 completions, 11984 yards
Per game: 2.92 TDs, 0.63 INTs, 26.3 completions per game, 315.4 yards per game

At this rate, he'd beat Favre's completion record in 23.5 games and would only need 16 more games to set the yardage record.

Peyton v Active QBs

So how does Peyton compare to his contemporaries?  Let's look at other great current QBs, Brady, Brees and Rodgers and what their stats would be at their 246th game (Peyton's current) mark.  Brees (374) and Brady (372) are 4th and 5th on the all-time TD list, behind Marino's 420 TDs.  Rodgers might have an outside shot at Peyton's TD record (although he lost 3 years on Favre's bench). 

Drew Brees
Games: 193
TD: 374
INT: 184
Yards: 52,997
Completions: 4,659 (Attempts: 7,062)
Completion Pct: 66.0%
Per game: 1.94 TDs, 0.95 INTs, 275 yards

So Brees needs 53 more games and based on his career rate, he'd have 477 TDs, 234 INTs, 67,551.  He'd be 33 TD short of Peyton while throwing 12 INTs more, but have 739 more yards.

To reach 508 TDs, 35 year old Brees needs to play another 69 games at his career rate, which is another 4.3 seasons. 

Tom Brady
Games: 200
TD: 372
INT: 136
Yards: 50,854
Completions: 4,329 (Attempts: 6,832)
Completion Pct: 63.4%
Per game: 1.86 TDs, 0.68 INTs, 254 yards

Brady needs 46 more games and based on his career rate, he'd have 458 TDs, 167 INTs, 62,550.  Brady's far behind Peyton in TDs and yardage but far ahead in INTs.

To reach 508 TDs, 37 year old Brady needs to play another 73 games at his career rate, which is another 4.5 seasons. 

Aaron Rodgers
Games: 101
TD: 206
INT: 53
Yards: 25,871
Completions: 2,086 (Attempts: 3,166)
Completion Pct: 65.9%
Per game: 2.04 TDs, 0.52 INTs, 256 yards

Rodgers needs 145 more games and would end up with 502 TDs, only 128 INTs, and 63,013 yards.  So if Rodgers plays another 148 games (9.25 seasons) at his current rate, he could reach 508 TDs at the age of 40.

I'd guess Peyton plays at least another season beyond this, knowing what a football junkie he is.  Having thrown 55 touchdowns last season, he's on track this year (19 TDs in 6 games) to reach the 50 TD mark.  If he reaches that and let's be conservative and say he only throws 30 TDs next year, he'd finish with 571 TDs.  Brees, Brady or Rodgers would have to sustain a high level of play into their 40s to even have a realistic chance.  Unless Andrew Luck or another young gun develops a Manning-like passing obsession, I think Peyton holds onto the career TD record for a few decades.

No comments:

Post a Comment