With Jared Goff and Carson Wentz about to go #1 and #2 in the 2016 NFL Draft this week and Paxton Lynch and possibly even Connor Cook going in the 1st round, lets take a look at how often teams hit on franchise QBs with their first round pick in the last 20 years.
2 categories - Starter and BUST.
- Starter players are ones who've started 6 or more years for the team that drafted them or traded for them, or are clearly on track to do so. (Yes, this is highly subjective).
- Busts are ones who became journeymen, merely backups or are just out of the league. They were bad investments for the team that drafted them.
#1 Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay - Too early to tell
#2 Marcus Mariota - Tennessee - Too early to tell
#3 Blake Bortles - Jacksonville - Too early to tell
#22 Johnny Manziel - Cleveland (BUST)
#32 Terry Bridgewater - Minnesota - Too early to tell
#16 EJ Manuel - Buffalo (BUST)
#1 Andrew Luck - Indianapolis (Starter)
#2 Robert Griffin - Washington (BUST)
#8 Ryan Tannehill - Miami (Starter)
#22 Brandon Weeden - Cleveland (BUST)
#1 Cam Newton - Carolina (Starter)
#8 Jake Locker - Tennessee (BUST)
#10 Blaine Gabbert - Jacksonville (BUST)
#12 Christian Ponder - Minnesota (BUST)
#1 Sam Bradford - St. Louis (BUST)
#25 Tim Tebow - Denver (BUST)
#1 Matt Stafford - Detroit (Starter)
#5 Mark Sanchez - NY Jets (BUST)
#17 Josh Freeman - Tampa Bay (BUST)
#3 Matt Ryan - Atlanta (Starter)
#18 Joe Flacco - Baltimore (Starter)
#1 JaMarcus Russell - Oakland (BUST)
#22 Brady Quinn - Cleveland (BUST)
#3 Vince Young - Tennessee (BUST)
#10 Matt Leinart - Arizona (BUST)
#11 Jay Cutler - Denver (Starter - traded to Denver)
#1 Alex Smith - San Francisco (Starter)
#24 Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay (Starter)
#25 Jason Campbell - Washington (BUST)
#1 Eli Manning - NY Giants via trade (Starter)
#4 Philip Rivers - San Diego via trade (Starter)
#11 Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh (Starter)
#22 JP Losman - Buffalo (BUST)
#1 Carson Palmer - Cincinnati (Starter)
#7 Byron Leftwich - Jacksonville (BUST)
#19 Kyle Boller - Baltimore (BUST)
#22 Rex Grossman - Chicago (BUST)
#1 David Carr - Houston (BUST)
#3 Joey Harrington - Detroit (BUST)
#32 Patrick Ramsey - Washington (BUST)
#1 Michael Vick - Atlanta (Starter)
#18 Chad Pennington - NY Jets (Starter)
#1 Tim Couch - Cleveland (BUST)
#2 Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia (Starter)
#3 Akili Smith - Cincinnati (BUST)
#11 Daunte Culpepper - Minnesota (Starter)
#12 Cade McNown - Chicago (BUST)
#1 Peyton Manning - Indianapolis (Starter)
#2 Ryan Leaf - San Diego (BUST)
#26 Jim Druckenmiller - San Francisco (BUST)
- 50 total quarterbacks have been drafted in the 1st round of the last 20 drafts. 18 of them were Starters, 28 are BUSTS, and its too early to judge the 4 QBs from 2014-15 that are currently starting. Of course there's no issue passing judgment on Manziel's BUST status.
- So of the 46 picks we have passed judgement on, there has been 18 successful picks. That's a 39% success rate.
- Of the overall #1 picks in the last 20 years, 13 have been quarterbacks. Excluding 2015's Winston, 8 of the 12 were successful (and I'm generously counting Alex Smith as a success, even though Rodgers was still on the board). 67% success rate ain't bad.
- That also means that only 10 other first round picks were successful, out of the other 34 non-#1 overall picks chosen. A miserable 29.4% success rate.
- How about picks #2-#10? 4 of 14 were good picks - 28.5% success rate.
- Picks #11-#32? 6 of 20 were good picks - 30% success rate.
- What is the success rate of the 2nd QB taken? Again, only 4 out of 14 were successful.
Conclusion - If you need a QB, you better hope you have the #1 overall pick.
- Let's examine actual championship success: Superbowls. How many first round draft picks in the last 20 years have won championships?
-Peyton Manning 2007 for the Colts, 2016 for the Broncos
-Eli Manning 2008, 2012
-Ben Roethlisberger 2006, 2009
-Aaron Rodgers 2011
-Joe Flacco 2013
Out of the 50 QB chosen in the last 20 years, just 5 players have won championships. So the championship success return rate for a 1st round investment is really 10%.
Those 5 QBs won a total of 8 titles, though Peyton's 2nd title wasn't
for the Colts, who drafted him. Ignoring that, let's be generous and
say that 1st round QBs have won 8 of the last 20 Superbowls - 40% of all
the championships. Yep, definitely worth it!