Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Quarterbacks taken 1st Round of last 20 drafts

With Jared Goff and Carson Wentz about to go #1 and #2 in the 2016 NFL Draft this week and Paxton Lynch and possibly even Connor Cook going in the 1st round, lets take a look at how often teams hit on franchise QBs with their first round pick in the last 20 years.

2 categories - Starter and BUST.
- Starter players are ones who've started 6 or more years for the team that drafted them or traded for them, or are clearly on track to do so.  (Yes, this is highly subjective).
- Busts are ones who became journeymen, merely backups or are just out of the league.  They were bad investments for the team that drafted them.

2015
#1 Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay - Too early to tell
#2 Marcus Mariota - Tennessee - Too early to tell

2014
#3 Blake Bortles - Jacksonville - Too early to tell
#22 Johnny Manziel - Cleveland (BUST)
#32 Terry Bridgewater - Minnesota - Too early to tell

2013
#16 EJ Manuel - Buffalo (BUST)

2012
#1 Andrew Luck - Indianapolis (Starter)
#2 Robert Griffin - Washington (BUST)
#8 Ryan Tannehill - Miami (Starter)
#22 Brandon Weeden - Cleveland (BUST)

2011
#1 Cam Newton - Carolina (Starter)
#8 Jake Locker - Tennessee (BUST)
#10 Blaine Gabbert - Jacksonville (BUST)
#12 Christian Ponder - Minnesota (BUST)

2010
#1 Sam Bradford - St. Louis (BUST)
#25 Tim Tebow - Denver (BUST)

2009
#1 Matt Stafford - Detroit (Starter)
#5 Mark Sanchez - NY Jets (BUST)
#17 Josh Freeman - Tampa Bay (BUST)

2008
#3 Matt Ryan - Atlanta (Starter)
#18 Joe Flacco - Baltimore (Starter)

2007
#1 JaMarcus Russell - Oakland (BUST)
#22 Brady Quinn - Cleveland (BUST)

2006
#3 Vince Young - Tennessee (BUST)
#10 Matt Leinart - Arizona (BUST)
#11 Jay Cutler - Denver (Starter - traded to Denver)

2005
#1 Alex Smith - San Francisco (Starter)
#24 Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay (Starter)
#25 Jason Campbell - Washington (BUST)

2004
#1 Eli Manning - NY Giants via trade (Starter)
#4 Philip Rivers - San Diego via trade (Starter)
#11 Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh (Starter)
#22 JP Losman - Buffalo (BUST)

2003
#1 Carson Palmer - Cincinnati (Starter)
#7 Byron Leftwich - Jacksonville (BUST)
#19 Kyle Boller - Baltimore (BUST)
#22 Rex Grossman - Chicago (BUST)

2002
#1 David Carr - Houston (BUST)
#3 Joey Harrington - Detroit (BUST)
#32 Patrick Ramsey - Washington (BUST)

2001
#1 Michael Vick - Atlanta (Starter)

2000
#18 Chad Pennington - NY Jets (Starter)

1999
#1 Tim Couch - Cleveland (BUST)
#2 Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia (Starter)
#3 Akili Smith - Cincinnati (BUST)
#11 Daunte Culpepper - Minnesota (Starter)
#12 Cade McNown - Chicago (BUST)

1998
#1 Peyton Manning - Indianapolis (Starter)
#2 Ryan Leaf - San Diego (BUST)

1997
#26 Jim Druckenmiller - San Francisco (BUST)


- 50 total quarterbacks have been drafted in the 1st round of the last 20 drafts.  18 of them were Starters, 28 are BUSTS, and its too early to judge the 4 QBs from 2014-15 that are currently starting.  Of course there's no issue passing judgment on Manziel's BUST status.

- So of the 46 picks we have passed judgement on, there has been 18 successful picks.  That's a 39% success rate.

- Of the overall #1 picks in the last 20 years, 13 have been quarterbacks.  Excluding 2015's Winston, 8 of the 12 were successful (and I'm generously counting Alex Smith as a success, even though Rodgers was still on the board).  67% success rate ain't bad.

- That also means that only 10 other first round picks were successful, out of the other 34 non-#1 overall picks chosen.  A miserable 29.4% success rate.

- How about picks #2-#10?  4 of 14 were good picks - 28.5% success rate.

- Picks #11-#32?  6 of 20 were good picks - 30% success rate.

- What is the success rate of the 2nd QB taken? Again, only 4 out of 14 were successful.

Conclusion - If you need a QB, you better hope you have the #1 overall pick.

- Let's examine actual championship success: Superbowls.  How many first round draft picks in the last 20 years have won championships?

-Peyton Manning 2007 for the Colts, 2016 for the Broncos
-Eli Manning 2008, 2012
-Ben Roethlisberger 2006, 2009
-Aaron Rodgers 2011
-Joe Flacco 2013

Out of the 50 QB chosen in the last 20 years, just 5 players have won championships.  So the championship success return rate for a 1st round investment is really 10%.  Those 5 QBs won a total of 8 titles, though Peyton's 2nd title wasn't for the Colts, who drafted him.  Ignoring that, let's be generous and say that 1st round QBs have won 8 of the last 20 Superbowls - 40% of all the championships.  Yep, definitely worth it!