UCLA welcomes Utah in beatdown fashion

Took my parents and my boys to our first game vs one of the two new additions to the Pac conference, Utah.  They were horrible.  We outscored them 36-21 in the 1st half and 40-28 in the 2nd.  It was a balanced attack.  Josh Smith was our leading scorer with 14 points while 3 others (David, Jerime, Tyler) were in double-digits.  Four of our players hit 2 three-pointers each - David, Jerime, Tyler and Norman.  We shot nearly 58.7% on the night and 56.3% from 3.  And nobody took more than 7 attempts.  Stover played just 11 minutes but finished with a team-high 6 rebounds and 2 blocks.

2014 Brazil WC Roster Prediction - 1st Klinsmann Edition Jan 2012

This is usually such a futile exercise anyway, but with Klinsmann just half a year into his tenure, even the most devoted US fans really have no idea what his squad will look like in 2.5 years.  Bradley was so much more predictable (aside from the Brian Ching pre-WC cut).  But it'll make for an interesting read come May 2014.  This is my 1st 23 man roster prediction since Klinsmann's hire.


Goalkeepers:
Tim Howard, Bill Hamid, Brad Guzan

Hamid is the keeper in waiting and while Klinsmann may opt for another young gun in waiting in Johnson, he could decide that an experienced backup is more necessary.  Hopefully Guzan's recent solid play for Aston Villa will springboard him into a consistent starting role in the EPL or somewhere in Europe over the next 2 years.
In the mix: Sean Johnson, Nick Rimando


Centerbacks:
Oguchi Onyewu, Tim Ream, Geoff Cameron, Zak Whitbread

This is probably the most difficult group to predict.  If Bocanegra ages well and maintains his level of play, he will be a first choice starter and team captain.  If he slows down by age 35 as I would expect, and younger, more technical players have developed as hoped for, then it's a complete crapshoot as to who makes it.  I say Gooch will be our veteran stalwart while Tim Ream lives up to the potential that Bolton is paying for.  Zak Whitbread hasn't even gotten a call-up yet, but I'm banking on EPL success to change that soon.  Of the 3 2011 MLSers that everyone has been clamoring for - Gonzalez, John and Cameron - I'll roll the dice on Cameron, seeing his solid performances in the January games.  Clarence Goodson actually seems like a logical candidate to start next to Gooch by 2014 as well, but I'll cut him for now.
In the mix: Clarence Goodson, Carlos Bocanegra, George John, Omar Gonzalez, Michael Parkhurst, Gale Agbossoumonde


Outside Backs:
Timothy Chandler, Eric Lichaj, Alfredo Morales, Steve Cherundolo

Tim Chandler will start at one of the outside back spots.  Lichaj, injured during the 1st half year of Klinsmann's tenure, will prove himself worthy of the other side.  I'm gambling that old man Cherundolo will be the veteran presence while useful enough to come off the bench.  Bundesliga youngster Morales will round out the four.  I'm not too high on any of the MLS options currently although if I had to take one, I'll go with Loyd.
In the mix: Zach Loyd, Heath Pearce, Perry Kitchen


Defensive Mids:
Michael Bradley, Maurice Edu, Jermaine Jones

Beckerman is a Klinsmann favorite but I'm hoping JK comes to his senses in two years time.  How many defensive mids will go depends on the formation he's settled on by then.  I know Klinsmann might even try Bradley or Edu in front of the defensive mid but until roles are decided, I'm leaving them back there, where I think they belong.
In the mix: Kyle Beckerman, Ricardo Clark, Jeff Larentowicz


Attacking Mids:
Landon Donovan, Brek Shea, Stuart Holden, Fabian Johnson, Jose Francisco Torres, Joshua Gatt

This category is so full of talent players whose skill sets are so versatile, that it is very difficult to par down the list.  I thought about splitting between Attacking and Wide midfielders, but again, formations are not settled.  Landon may be a forward by 2014.  Brek should be a shoe-in at left mid - probably the only midfield position on the field into which we can feel confident about slotting a particular player.  Fingers crossed that Holden will be injury free for the next 2 years.  JFT has the vision and technical skills that Klinsmann loves.  Fabian Johnson beats out Danny Williams, who is more defensive anyway, as the talented wide player from the Bundesliga to make it.  Lastly, I'm taking a big chance on young speedster, Joshua Gatt, over Mikkel Diskerud, to be that offensive spark off the bench (perhaps like Donovan was in 2002).
In the mix: Danny Williams, Mikkel Diskerud, Benny Feilhaber, Sacha Kljestan, DaMarcus Beasley, Alejandro Bedoya, Freddy Adu, Robbie Rogers, Joe Gyau, Sebastian Lletget 


Forwards:
Clint Dempsey, Jozy Altidore, Terrence Boyd

Dempsey's currently got a career high 15 goals halfway through his season, so he gets the honor of moving up to forward.  In two years time, he might still be one of our top 2 scoring options.  Otherwise no one is even close to displacing Jozy yet.  Still, US fans are hoping a scoring force emerges in the next two years.  It could be German youngster, Terrence Boyd, who has the size, speed and strength to be the next hope.  Controversially, I left Agudelo and other MLSers off the list until somebody shows me something.  I only listed 3 forwards since midfielder such as Donovan and Shea could easily be deployed as a wide forward depending on formations.
In the mix: Juan Agudelo, Edson Buddle, CJ Sapong, Teal Bunbury



Starting Lineup:

-----------Dempsey- Jozy----------
Shea ------- Donovan ------Holden
--------------Bradley---------------
Chandler - Ream - Gooch - Lichaj
--------------Howard--------------

49ers lose the NFC Championship

I was pretty convinced that we were going to win yesterday.  Defensively, the game played out even better than I thought it would.  (Patrick Willis, exulting over a sack above, and the D deserve the picture honor today).  I didn't think Manning was going to air it out and run up the score on us.  But, I figured with a turnover or two and an adequate offense, we would prevail 23-20.  Turns out the game's only 2 turnovers went their way and our inept offense would seal our fate, 20-17.  It hurts to lose this extremely winnable game.

Positives:

Our defense was just awesome yesterday, only allowing 2 Giants scoring drives of more than 30 yards.  It consisted of their 1st quarter 69 yard TD drive and a 51 yd drive resulting in a FG to end the 1st half.  Of NY's 10 2nd half possessions, they punted 9 times!  Their one score in the 2nd half came from that punt which bounced off the 49ers' Kyle Williams' knee and gave the Giants the ball at the 49ers 20 yard line.  If you include William's OT punt return fumble, then 10 of NY's 20 points came only on a short field via a muffed or fumbled punt.

So for the entire game, the 49ers defense forced Eli Manning and the Giants offense to punt (and turn over on downs once) 12 times, including twice in the critical OT period.  Two of those punts easily could have been interceptions but our safety collided with our cornerback knocking the ball loose both times.  Also, late in the game, Ahmad Bradshaw clearly fumbled but the refs inexplicably blew the whistle while he was still being tackled.  That would have put us in FG territory immediately.

The two turnovers on punts and mistake on Bradshaw's fumble equal to a 13 point swing right there.

Even though Carlos Rogers was having trouble with Victor Cruz early on, Rogers and the 49ers secondary kept the high-powered Giants offense at bay in the 2nd half.  Considering Manning attempted 58 passes for the game, achieving a tie game in regulation was brilliant.

It was painfully disappointing because our defense had put our team into a great position to win.  A simple FG drive on any of our last 3 possessions would have won the game.


Negatives:

Our offense punted 10 times the whole game, including 5 of our last 6 possessions (not including the 19 second possession before end of regulation).  Of those 5 wasted possessions, we went three and out 4 times, including in our last 3 possessions.  Even our mid 4th quarter FG was a disappointing result since that drive began on the 50 yard line and could have put us ahead by 4 points.

Vernon Davis was our only downfield receiving threat.  Our entire receiver core combined for 1 catch.  Crabtree needs to be the Dez Bryant-like talent that we thought we were stealing with the 10th pick back in 2009.  Perhaps we can pickup another play-making receiver in the offseason, but something there needs to happen.

I also thought we abandoned the run far too easily.  Gore and Hunter only combined for 20 rushes while Alex Smith attempted 26 passes.  Gore/Hunter was averaging 5.25 yards per carry.  We should have pounded the defense into submission.  At the very least, use it to bite of chunks of yardage so that Alex Smith wasn't facing 3rd and long so much.

Speaking of 3rd down, we were a pathetically aggravating 1 for 13 yesterday.  Alex Smith just was not accurate.  There were several passes in crunchtime that landed at receivers' feet.  I wasn't expecting Aaron Rodgers, but to not even get the FG on any of our last 3 possessions in the 4th quarter and OT was just sad.

After looking at all our offensive woes, we still did enough to win, but mistakes by our backup punt returner and a blown ref call cost us badly.  Our defense deserved better than that.


Conclusion:

It was certainly one of the most disappointing games I've ever seen as a 49ers fan but probably the least painful of our NFC Championship losses.  The 1997 NFC Championship loss to the Packers was harder to take, as were the 1992 and 1993 eliminations at the hands of the Cowboys and the '90 defeat to the Giants.

At least our expectations before this year were so low that every regular season win was a cause for celebration, much less a playoff berth, a freaking 1st round bye and an amazing come from behind (twice) win over the favored Saints team.  I can't forget that we had 6 wins last year.  If you told me preseason that we'd lose in the 3rd round of the playoffs, I'd have been absolutely ecstatic.  What an amazing coaching job by Harbaugh.  We can only hope this is the beginning of a new era.  But still, all I want is one SB championship.

Dempsey's Historic EPL Hat Trick

In Fulham's league match vs Newcastle today, Clint Dempsey scored 3 goals to record the first hat trick by an American in the English Premier League.  It was actually his 2nd hat trick of the season, as he first set that mark vs Charlton in the FA Cup just 14 days ago.  As of today, he's scored an astounding 15 goals across all competitions (9 EPL goals), a career record.  He also crossed the 50 goal milestone today for Fulham, now with 52 (42 EPL goals).

Dempsey was also awarded the US Soccer Federation's Player of the Year.  He last won it in 2007.

49ers v Giants in Playoff History

With the 8th playoff meeting between SF and NYG coming up on Sunday, I've decided to dig into their playoff rivalry. 

1981 Divisional Round
January 3, 1982, Candlestick Park
SF 38 - NY 24

1984 Divisional Round
December 29, 1984, Candlestick Park
SF 21 - NY 10

1985 Wildcard Round
December 29, 1985, Giants Stadium
NY 17 - SF 3

1986 Divisional Round
January 4, 1987, Giants Stadium
NY 49 - SF 3

1990 NFC Championship
January 20, 1991, Candlestick Park
NY 15 - SF 13

1993 Divisional Round
January 15, 1994, Candlestick Park
SF 44 - NY 3

2002 Wildcard Round
January 5, 2003, Candlestick Park
SF 39 - NY 38

2011 NFC Championship
January 22, 2012, Candlestick Park



- They've met 7 times starting in 1981 through 2002, including 3 times in 3 consecutive years ('84-'86).

- No teams will have met more each other more times in the playoffs than the 49ers and the Giants.  The 49ers' 2nd most frequent opponent in playoff history will be of course the Dallas Cowboys (7 times).  However, it surprised me to find that 3 of those times were before 1973.  That's simply because tensions are escalated when 6 of those times were in the NFC championship game.  We played the Vikings and Packers 5 times each and the Bears and Redskins 4 times each.  We haven't faced another NFC team more than once.  Of course, we beat the AFC Bengals twice in the Superbowl.

- Including Sunday, 6 of these games will have been contested at Candlestick.

- 4 times the winner of this rivalry game went on to win the Superbowl (SF '81, '84; NY '86, '90)

- The 49ers currently have the advantage, 4 wins to 3 losses.

- This Sunday will only be the 2nd Conference Championship game between the two.  They've met the most in the Divisional round (4 times) and twice in the Wildcard.

- Obviously the 1990 loss in the NFC Championship was the most painful for 49er fans.  It not only ended the chances for a 3 peat, but it essentially ended Montana's tenure in San Francisco.

As for Sunday's game, most experts and pundits seem to be picking the Giants to win.  I think it must be difficult for the media to pick against a hot NY team because of their East Coast bias.  NY's formidable pass rush and explosive aerial game reminds them too much of NY's 2007 playoff run.  They point to the 49ers needing 5 turnovers and still barely winning.  They thumb their noses at the 49ers defense, who allowed Brees 2 TDs in the last 4 minutes.  Also, they'd much rather a big name QB like Eli Manning (and Tom Brady) be in the SB than a "game-manager" like Alex Smith (or Flacco).  In essence, everyone is rooting for the Giants.

That is absolutely fine.  I love that Harbaugh can tell his team that they are the disrespected underdogs in their own house.  I love that it will be dumping rain from today through gametime.  We can play our style of physical football, at home, with nothing to lose.  I hope we ride Gore all day to the promised land.  I hope our specials teams pins them deep and Akers is accurate.  I hope our run defense lives up to its reputation and forces Manning to throw.  And I hope he's throwing in a freakin' monsoon.

Prediction: 49ers 23 - Giants 20

49ers: The Catch I, II, III

After Alex Smith and Vernon Davis connected for that clutch game-winning TD in the closing seconds of Saturday's divisional playoff game, I immediately thought of TO's emotional and cathartic grab 13 years ago vs the Packers.  I know Vernon tried to coin his catch as "The Grab", but I like "The Catch III" much better.  I decided to dig into the details of each of these catches, for heck of it.

Each of the moments happened at home, in Candlestick Park.  Interestingly, each happened on 3rd down and 3 yards to go (to a first down).  All 3 were in different rounds of the playoffs: Montana's was in the conference championship, while Young's was in the Wildcard round and Smith's was in the Divisional round.

While TO and Vernon's catches happened with mere seconds on the clock, Clark's catch was actually at the 58 second mark.  TO and Vernon caught the ball near the goalline and absorbed contact, while Clark snatched it at the back of the endzone, free from harassing defenders.  Montana actually had to deal with more defenders than Clark did.

The Catch
Date: January 10, 1982
Game: 1981 NFC Championship
Final Score: SF 49ers 28 - Dallas Cowboys 27
QB-Receiver: Joe Montana to Dwight Clark
Game situation: Dal 27 - SF 21.  3rd and 3 from the 6 yd line.  58 seconds left.
Drive info: 13 plays, 90 yards, 4:03 (started at 4:54 left)

The Catch II
Date: January 3, 1999
Game: 1998 Wildcard Round
Final score: SF 49ers 30 - Green Bay Packers 27
QB-Receiver: Steve Young to Terrell Owens
Game situation: GB 27 - SF 23.  3rd and 3 from the 25 yard line.  8 seconds left.
Drive info: 9 plays, 76 yards, 1:43 (started at 1:47)

The Catch III
Date: January 14, 2012
Game: 2011 Divisional Round
Final score: SF 49ers 36 - New Orleans Saints 32
QB-Receiver: Alex Smith to Vernon Davis
Game situation: NO 32 - SF 29.  3rd and 3 from the 14 yard line.  14 seconds left.
Drive info: 7 plays, 85 yards, 1:28 (started at 1:37)

So I guess the inevitable question would be, which Catch was the best?  Looking at the play itself, Clark's catch might have been the most beautiful, but I'd say TO's catch was the most impressive.  Young slipped in his drop back, but regained his balance and fired a 25 yard pass to TO, who was immediately and viciously hammered (sandwiched) by 2 defenders, but still hung on.  Don't forget, there was only 8 seconds left, and they had no timeouts.  Young had to go to the endzone, and the Packers knew it.  Montana had nearly a minute left, was already at the 6 yard line and actually could have gained another 1st down.

As for its significance in the moment, Montana's throw symbolized the transformation of the 9ers from a losing franchise into winners.  TO's catch was important because of the catharsis that it provided since the Packers had eliminated the 49ers the 3 previous seasons.  So Smith's throw has a chance to have the significance of Montana's.  Ultimately, Montana-Dwight was in the NFC title game and led to a SB championship, while Young-TO flamed out the following week in the 2nd round.

The Smith-Davis play had the least degree of difficulty since it was in essence a simple post pattern.  In fact, it was really the culmination (and the easiest) of 4 great plays through 2 separate comeback TD drives in the last 3 minutes.  However, after 8 years of being deprived of the playoffs, that throw launched us into the NFC championship game and instantly became the greatest moment since the Catch II.  Where it finally finds a home in 49er lore depends on whether Smith and Davis are hoisting the trophy come Feb 5th.

In the big picture, Montana to Dwight throw jump-started the 49er dynasty in 1981 while Young's throw in the last playoff win of his career was essentially the end of that dynasty.  Might Smith's throw be the first of a new 49er age? 

But even if it is, nothing will ever compare to the original Catch.  Nothing, except for a comeback in the Superbowl, that is.

For my money, Montana to John Taylor in the 1988 SB was the greatest 49ers play (and drive) in history.  (Game situation: Cin 16 - SF 13.  2nd and 2, 10 yard line, 39 seconds left.  Drive info: 14 plays, 92 yards, 2:36)

The night Derek Fisher got me 2 tacos

Took my dad to his first Lakers game last night.  As I've said before, the Lakers sure know how to put on a show, even before the tip-off.  What was memorable?

- Lamar Odom getting a standing O from the crowd when he was subbed in 1st quarter.

- Seeing Barnes and Kapono play again was a nice throwback to the days when I camped out for the right to stand in the courtside student section.  I'm happy they've carved out nice careers for themselves, even if its for the hated Lakers.  Barnes is a clear scrappy upgrade to Artest and I was shocked to see Kapono out there late 4th quarter.

- Vince Carter looks like a shell of his prime self.  The Mavs have a lot of big name talent - Dirk, Kidd, Terry, Carter, Odom & Marion.  Delonte West looks the most energetic, however.  Clearly, they miss Chandler and JJ Barea though.

- Halftime auction: A Bynum signed ball auctioning for over $400.  A Lamar Odom signed, game-worn Finals jersey auctioning for $1025.  A Kobe and 4 other Lakers signed frame picture going for $2,025.

- The Lakers only having 46 points at the end of 3 quarters, scoring 7 in the 3rd.  But, the Mavs only had 51.

- Kobe not making many shots until a few big ones in the 4th.  Andrew Bynum was clearly the best player on the team on this night, though I think he could improve by not waiting so long to make his post moves.  The offense becomes extremely stagnant.

- If I was the Mavs, I'd rather single-cover Kobe with Marion, instead of doubling him early and leaving Fisher with an open jumper.

- The Staples crowd was quiet all game (besides pleading Artest to pass) until Fisher's game-winner.  The Lakers badly need a real point guard.  The rookie can't hang yet and old man Fisher should only play in the last 7 minutes.